This paper analyses determinants of pass-through for Germany’s 2022 temporary fuel discount at its implementation and subsequent termination. Based on a unique dataset of fuel station characteristics and prices, we employ a two-stage Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT) methodology to estimate spatial pass-through variation. Our findings indicate that horizontal and vertical market structures exert an asymmetric influence on tax pass-through. Competitive pressure enhances price responsiveness to taxreductions, whereas we find the opposite pattern for the tax increase. Furthermore, independence from upstream markets is associated with lower tax pass-through, indicating the presence of double marginalisation.
@article{von2026spatial,title={Spatial competition and pass-through of fuel taxes: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in Germany},author={{von Waldow}, Frederik and Link, Heike},journal={Journal of Transport Economics and Policy},volume={60},number={1},pages={1--30},year={2026},publisher={Liverpool University Press},}
Working Papers
2024
Spatial Competition and Pass-through of Fuel Taxes: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in Germany
This paper analyses the pass-through rates and their determinants of the temporary Ger man fuel discount in 2022 at its start and its termination. Based on a unique dataset of fuel station characteristics and prices, we employ a Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT) methodology to estimate heterogeneous pass-through rates. Our main contribution is to identify the impact of horizontal and vertical market structures on the extent to which taxes are passed on to consumers. While competitive pressure is positively associated with the response of prices to tax changes, we estimate lower pass-through predominantly for more isolated stations with fewer competitors. Furthermore, our results indicate that independence from upstream markets is accompanied by a reduced pass-through of tax changes suggesting the existence of double marginalization.
@techreport{von2024spatial,title={Spatial Competition and Pass-through of Fuel Taxes: Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment in Germany},author={{von Waldow}, Frederik and Link, Heike},year={2024},institution={DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research},presentation={vonWaldow_ITEA_Leeds_FuelTax_Comp-komprimiert.pdf}}
2023
Combining GPS tracking and surveys for a mode choice model: Processing data from a quasi-natural experiment in Germany
Heike Link, Dennis Gaus, Neil Murray, and 4 more authors
This paper deals with the data generation process implemented for an analysis of the impact of the 9-Euro ticket on mode choice. We discuss the assumptions made and procedures used to process a raw dataset that is based on GPS traces of individuals’ movements and on survey data into the choice-set for a discrete choice model. Several steps of cleaning and merging are described in order to a) obtain a reliable dataset; b) define available modal alternatives with attributes such as distance, duration, and costs; and c) impute the travel purpose for each movement to form. Our main contribution is to show that a systematic analysis of the sample obtained at different stages of data processing is important to make sure that the final sample is unbiased. Furthermore, we contribute by analysing the difference between observed travel time and travel time calculated by routing tools such as Google Maps. We show that the often- employed approach of estimating RP based choice models on the basis of observed travel times for the chosen mode of transport but calculated travel times for the non-chosen alternatives can introduce a structural bias into the sample.
@techreport{link2023combining,title={Combining GPS tracking and surveys for a mode choice model: Processing data from a quasi-natural experiment in Germany},author={Link, Heike and Gaus, Dennis and Murray, Neil and Guajardo Ortega, Maria Fernanda and Gervois, Flavien and von Waldow, Frederik and Eigner, Sofia},year={2023},institution={DIW Discussion Papers},}
